An Interactive Annotated World Bibliography of Printed and Digital Works in the History of Medicine and the Life Sciences from Circa 2000 BCE to 2024 by Fielding H. Garrison (1870-1935), Leslie T. Morton (1907-2004), and Jeremy M. Norman (1945- ) Traditionally Known as “Garrison-Morton”

16061 entries, 14144 authors and 1947 subjects. Updated: December 10, 2024

CARLSON, Colin J.

1 entries
  • 14049

Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk.

Nature, 607, 551-561, 2022.


1) Using a phylogeographical model of the mammal-virus network, and projections of geographical range shifts, the authors assert that 3,139 mammal species will aggregate in new combinations at high elevations, seeking respite from rising heat.

2) Further they state that most mammalian species will have a range that overlaps with that of at least one previously unfamiliar species, and that more than 300,000 new cross-species encounters will occur globally, especially in tropical Africa and southeast Asia. They project that this will lead to a doubling in the number of cross-species contacts. They add that tropical hotspots of novel viral sharing will broadly coincide with areas of high population density, such as India, Indonesia, eastern China and the Philippines, by 2070.

3) They state that bats will become key drivers of altered virus sharing under climate change. Bats are known for their ability to harbor and transmit emergent pathogens. Furthermore, as winged mammals, bats are well positioned to respond to changing environmental conditions by taking flight and migrating to higher elevations or elsewhere.

4) The authors indicate that these ecological transitions are already underway, and that holding warming under 2 degrees Celsius in the 21st century will not reduce viral sharing.

5) The authors indicate that birds have the best documented virome after mammals, and account for the majority of non-mammalian reservoirs of zoonotic viruses. Thus changing bird migration patterns in a warming world will have a special impact on transmission.

6) Lastly, they state that climate change could easily become the dominant anthropogenic force in viral cross-species transmission.

Order of authorship in the original publication: Carlson, Albery, Merow....

(Thanks to Juan Weiss for this reference and its interpretation.)



Subjects: BIOLOGY › Ecology / Environment › Climate Change, EPIDEMIOLOGY › Pandemics